Bitcoin’s $80K Rally is Bullish, But Slightly Overstretched as Pullback Risks Still Linger: Godbole

• BTC’s price rally looks overstretched according to the spread between prices and the 200-hour SMA.
• The RSI has diverged bearishly suggesting the upward momentum has exhausted for now.
• The broader outlook remains constructive.

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Bullish but overstretched. That’s how bitcoin (BTC) looks on short duration technical charts after Monday’s breakout above $80,000.

The leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization soared to nearly $81,800 during the Asian trading hours on Monday, marking a 15% monthly gain, the highest since March, according to CoinDesk data.

Since the recent U.S. elections, bitcoin has demonstrated a textbook ascent, with consistent upswings followed by consolidations, setting the stage for the next leg higher.

But now above $80,000, the rally looks overstretched, as the spread between bitcoin’s price and its 200-hour simple moving average has widened to its highest level since early March, when prices suddenly corrected lower by 11% to $60,000.

In technical analysis, a significant gap between the price and the moving average typically indicates that the market has moved too quickly, prompting traders to reassess their positions and possibly take profits.

Further, the 14-hour relative strength index (RSI), a momentum oscillator used to confirm price movements, has shown bearish divergence, creating a lower high that contradicts BTC’s new high above $80,000

This bearish divergence suggests that the bullish momentum may have been exhausted for the time being, raising the possibility of an impending pullback.

If prices rollover, the first key piece of support would be the 50-hour SMA at $78,400. Acceptance below the average could open doors to a deeper decline to $75,000.

Note that corrections are a part of a bull market and a potential price decline could recharge bulls’ engines for a more long lasting rise to $90,000 and higher.

In other words, the broader outlook remains bullish, with possible resistance at $90,000.

Omkar Godbole, a chartered market technician, is a CoinDesk senior analyst and co-managing editor for markets. The views expressed here are his own.

Edited by Parikshit Mishra.